|
|
 |
FAQ Message |
| |
 What is the Company?s forecast for the supply and demand situation in the coal market in 2009? What is the fuel supply situation of the Company in 2009? |
According to the analysis and forecasts of the NDRC, the domestic supply of coal is anticipated to be slightly larger than its demand in 2009. The price of quality thermal coal in 2009 will see a 15%-20% decrease as compared to 2008. On the supply of coal, coal production throughout the year is anticipated to be approximately 2,750 million tonnes, representing an increase of approximately 8.44% as compared to 2007. Due to a faster decline of fixed asset investment growth rate in the industry, the growth rate of coal production will be 7.15% in 2009.
As regards demand, although there is the boosting factor of increased investments, it is anticipated that the growth of demand in the coal industry will not be fully reflected in 2009 and a larger turnaround in demand will not be seen until after 2010. In particular, the four major industries, namely power, iron and steel, cement and chemical fertilizer, will not become a strong support for a high growth rate of coal consumption in 2009.
It is conservatively estimated that coal-fired power generation will amount to 3,059.101 billion kWh in 2009. Based on the calculation of the consumption of standard coal of 450 grams per kWh, the actual consumption of standard coal for the power generation industry will be 1,377 million tonnes in 2009.
The consumption of coal by the iron and steel industry, the second largest coal-consuming industry, is decreasing. Although the decline in coal prices has slowed recently, a turnaround is unlikely to be seen in the foreseeable future. Taking into account the fixed asset investment of RMB 4 trillion, it is estimated that domestic production of crude steel will be 525 million tonnes in 2009, and coal consumption for iron and steel is estimated to be 315 million tonnes.
The over-supply of cement will remain significant in the next two years due to the problem of a concentrated unleashing of production capacity in the industry. It is estimated that 0.15 tonne of standard coal is consumed in producing one tonne of cement, and therefore the consumption of coal will be approximately 202 million tonnes in 2009.
The expansion of production capacity of the chemical fertilizer industry is relatively rapid and the upward trend of production will remain in 2009. The demand of coal in chemical fertilizer industry is anticipated to be 141 million tonnes in 2009.
Without taking into account the impact of other factors, the supply and demand of coal in the PRC will be relaxed in 2009 and, in general, coal supply will outstrip its demand. Taking into account the impact of import and export and inventories necessary for the society, the gap between supply and demand will be narrowed.
The Company anticipates that its planned demand for coal throughout 2009 is approximately 70 million tonnes, of which approximately 70% is expected to be contract coal and the remaining 30% will come from self-produced coal and market procurement to ensure supply. As there was substantial disagreement on contract coal prices for 2009 between coal companies and power companies, no consensus was reached by both parties on contract coal prices in the coal purchase order meeting in December 2008. Currently, the new round of negotiations on contract coal has not yet commenced, and therefore contract coal prices will need to be ultimately decided upon, and retrospectively adjusted, by both parties.
In 2009, the Company will continue to adopt a variety of measures to assure fuel supply and price stability. Apart from further expanding the contract coal proportion, the Company will benefit from the continuously increasing production capacities at Tashan Coal Mine, Yuzhou Coal Mine and East Unit 2 Coal Mine of Shengli Coal Mine invested by the Company, thereby providing a positive assurance for satisfying the coal demand of the Company's power plants in the southeastern coastal area. Currently, the Company is still actively seeking coal resources in the overseas market, with a view to partially resolving the risks associated with the domestic coal market through purchasing coal resources at reasonable prices. Meanwhile, the Company's newly constructed large and high-efficiency generating units will be able to effectively lower its average unit coal consumption, providing a significant help to withstand the risks associated with coal prices. |
| |
| Copyright © 2000-2005 Datang Power |
|
|
|
|
